On SMUD power, a heat pump usually heats a Sacramento home for less than a gas furnace and replaces the air conditioner at the same time. On PG&E electricity the running-cost race is close, and the case rests more on cooling, comfort and removing combustion. Roseville Electric falls between the two.
Tule Sacramento Heat Pump replaces gas furnaces with ducted heat pumps, or pairs the two in dual fuel systems, across the Sacramento region; licensed and insured contractors do the installation. This guide compares the two heating methods on the factors that decide the choice locally, using published rates and climate data rather than national averages.
Side by side
| Factor | Ducted heat pump | Gas furnace (with central AC) |
|---|---|---|
| How it heats | Moves outdoor heat indoors with a refrigerant loop | Burns natural gas in a heat exchanger |
| Cooling | Same unit cools in summer | Needs a separate air conditioner |
| Fuel and bill | Electricity from SMUD, Roseville Electric or PG&E | PG&E gas, plus electricity for the blower and the AC |
| Supply air in winter | Milder air over longer cycles | Hotter air in shorter bursts |
| Combustion | None: no burner, flue or carbon monoxide source | Burner, flue and heat exchanger to keep safe |
| Winter extras | Defrost cycles on damp, near-freezing mornings; optional backup strips | None |
| SMUD rebate | $2,000 or $3,000 on qualifying gas-to-electric systems | None |
| Permit and Title 24 | Permit, duct sealing, charge and airflow verification | Permit and duct sealing when the furnace is replaced |
What each costs to run
The cost of heat comes down to two prices and two efficiencies: PG&E’s gas rate against a furnace’s AFUE, and your electric rate against the heat pump’s COP (heat delivered per unit of electricity).
The break-even COP
Working from PG&E’s residential baseline gas rate of about $2.54 per therm and each utility’s winter energy charges (fixed charges left out), a heat pump beats a 95% furnace once its average COP clears these derived figures:
| Electric rate, winter | Break-even COP vs 95% furnace | vs 80% furnace |
|---|---|---|
| SMUD Time-of-Day, off-peak | 1.41 | 1.19 |
| SMUD Time-of-Day, 5 to 8 p.m. peak | 1.95 | 1.64 |
| Roseville Electric, Tier 1 to Tier 2 | 1.70 to 2.18 | 1.43 to 1.84 |
| PG&E E-ELEC, off-peak to peak | 3.13 to 3.52 | 2.63 to 2.96 |
| PG&E E-TOU-C (default), off-peak | 4.04 | 3.40 |
Reading the table
Any heat pump that averages a COP above 2 through the winter clears every SMUD figure, so SMUD customers start well ahead. On PG&E’s E-ELEC rate the heat pump has to run efficiently all season to match a condensing furnace, and on the default E-TOU-C plan the bar sits above 4. That is why the rate plan matters as much as the equipment in PG&E areas such as West Sacramento, Davis and Rocklin.
Gas comes from PG&E everywhere in the region, so the gas side of the comparison is the same at every address. Its procurement charge changes monthly, which moves the break-even point a little either way. The electric bill guide turns these ratios into dollars per therm of heat.
How much heating is at stake
In the Energy Commission’s 2019 survey, homes with PG&E gas and SMUD electricity averaged 2.9 therms of gas a day during the coldest February week, against 2.6 for homes on PG&E for both. NOAA’s normals give Sacramento Executive Airport about 2,436 heating degree days a year, so winter is long even if it is mild.
Will a heat pump keep up in winter?
On the valley floor, yes. The California Energy Commission’s design data puts Sacramento’s airport station at 31°F for the 0.2% heating condition and 33°F at 0.6%, and NOAA’s normals count about 15 nights a year at or below freezing and essentially none at 20°F or colder.
Why the summer load decides
The same station’s 1% cooling design is 98°F. A heat pump sized for that afternoon load usually carries enough heating capacity for a 31°F morning, which is why a cold-climate model is not needed for capacity here. The foothills are different: Placerville records about 30 freezing nights a year.
Fog and defrost
The local winter quirk is humidity. At the airport, NOAA’s normal January 7 a.m. temperature is 41.6°F and the month’s mean dew point is 41.3°F, so frost forms on the outdoor coil and the unit runs short defrost cycles. That is normal operation. Backup electric strips can cover those minutes; the aux heat and defrost guide explains how they should be set so they don’t run more than needed.
Comfort, safety and upkeep
How the heat feels
A furnace delivers air well above 100°F in short bursts, then shuts off. A heat pump sends milder air for longer stretches, and two-stage or variable-speed models run at low output for much of the day. The house reaches the same temperature, but the air at the register feels cooler on your hand, which some people notice in the first winter.
Combustion and safety
A heat pump has no burner, flue or heat exchanger, so there is no combustion appliance to check for carbon monoxide. When a furnace is removed, its gas branch is capped and the flue opening closed. City of Sacramento change-out permits also call for working carbon monoxide and smoke alarms at inspection.
Maintenance and run hours
A furnace and AC split the year; a heat pump’s outdoor unit works in both seasons, so filters, coil clearance and condensate drainage matter year-round. No heat pump or furnace comes with a guaranteed service life. Heat pump maintenance covers the yearly check.
Rules, rebates and timing
No rule in the City of Sacramento requires a working gas furnace to be replaced; its electrification strategy sets a 2045 goal for existing buildings without mandatory appliance replacement, and the state’s Title 24 heat pump baseline applies to new construction. State law (SB 222) does void HOA rules that would block a gas-to-electric replacement. The California gas furnace rules guide tracks what is adopted and what is proposed.
SMUD pays $3,000 for a qualifying variable-stage heat pump replacing gas heat and $2,000 for two-stage; Roseville Electric and PG&E list no rebate. The conversion cost guide shows the installed price before and after.
The middle path: dual fuel
A dual fuel system keeps the gas furnace and adds a heat pump in place of the air conditioner. The heat pump cools and handles most of the heating; below a set outdoor temperature, or when electricity is expensive, the furnace takes over.
It fits when the furnace is young, when winter electricity costs more than gas per unit of heat, as on some PG&E plans, or when a house has a large heating load. SMUD does not state whether dual fuel qualifies for its rebate, so that is confirmed first. See dual fuel heat pumps.
What about geothermal?
Ground-source heat pumps draw heat from buried loops rather than the outdoor air. They are a different trade with drilling or trenching and are not offered through this site; on the valley floor, where winter design temperatures sit above 30°F, an air-source heat pump already works in its comfortable range.
Which fits your house
- Furnace near the end of its life, SMUD power. A full conversion to a heat pump is the usual choice.
- Furnace near the end of its life, PG&E power. A heat pump on the E-ELEC rate, or dual fuel if the numbers favor gas in winter.
- Newer furnace, failed AC. Replace the AC with a heat pump and keep the furnace as backup.
- Ducts or panel in doubt. Test them first; the heat pump ductwork page explains what the result means.
To weigh the options for your own house, call (916) 516-1454 or request an estimate.
